Whose interests does this war serve?

“Those who profit from war do not seek peace.” Popular saying

For almost a week now, we have been shocked by news of the war between Palestinians and Israelis. The barbarities are terrifying. Women, children, and civilians being killed in cold blood is unthinkable in this day and age and takes us back to the barbaric invasions in Europe from the 5th to the 8th centuries. The atrocities tend to worsen even further, depending on the reactions of other neighboring countries, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the West Bank.

The news coverage details the origins of the conflict, which dates back 70 years to the creation of the states of Israel and Palestine, but says little about why world leaders are only watching the escalating conflicts in the region from afar.

This is an atypical war. It is not simply a matter of winning, because from a military power standpoint, there is a huge imbalance between the combatants. The goal is not to conquer territory, gain power, or impose a religious regime on the enemy. The tiny size of Gaza, slightly less than a quarter of the city of São Paulo, its irrelevant geographical location for commercial logistics, and the lack of oil and gas do not justify a fight for territory. According to IMF data, just over 2 million people live in this small area, with a per capita income equivalent to about one-third of that of Brazil. Almost 40% of the people of Gaza are under the age of 14. Both sides seek to wipe the enemy off the face of the earth. In other words, the winner of the war, in addition to being a genocidal maniac, will be left with barren land and a multitude of poor people.

Knowing that a war always has a political and economic objective, who is benefiting from this war?

The most hasty immediately point to the arms industry. Even in times of world peace, this sector already generates almost $2 trillion every year, about 2.7% of global GDP. In most countries, it is closely linked to governments, which creates an inhibition in the free market for arms trade. Therefore, it is unlikely that any potential benefits would outweigh the losses for governments around the world, if we compare them with the other side effects that will result from this war.

The main oil-producing countries have nothing to gain. Even before the war, they were already exporting large quantities of oil, benefiting their public accounts, reducing debt, and generating investments in infrastructure. If the war expands, there will be, as always, bombing of oil and gas wells, port terminals, and refineries. Consequently, there will be a tightening of economic sanctions from the West.

It is an absolutely atypical war that only creates losers. The Palestinian people are on the verge of being wiped out, the Israelis are escalating the conflict with other Arab and Muslim peoples, creating more instability, which is detrimental to the economic development of the region. Armed conflicts usually cause economic devastation in the affected areas. The high costs associated with war, such as destruction of infrastructure, loss of life, and the need for defense and security spending, usually outweigh any possible economic gains, even in conflicts that seek territorial gains, as in the case of Russia's war with Ukraine. In other words, there will be no benefits in the affected region.

The price of oil will rise; interest rates in the US economy will be impacted and are likely to halt their downward trajectory; the exchange rates of the world's major currencies will suffer speculative attacks. In other words, the conflict will further damage the already battered global economy.

Furthermore, everything suggests that Israel will spare no effort to unleash its full wrath against the barbarity it has suffered. Soon there will be statements of protest against the virulence of the response, popular uprisings in Arab and Muslim countries, and some incident that will further aggravate this situation, which, as always, will culminate in terrorist attacks around the world.

Europe and the United States are at a loss. They reacted quickly to the war in Ukraine, with economic sanctions and military, financial, and migratory support for the invaded country, but now they seem to be in a holding pattern. China, as always, says little about external conflicts.

The issue is not religious.

A few decades ago, people did not talk so much about the Middle East, but rather about the Levant, a geographical region that included Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, and Cyprus, and could extend to Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, where at many points in history different religions coexisted peacefully. Muslims, Christians, and Jews lived together in harmony.

So far, there have been no statements from world leaders on what to do about the ongoing tragedy in the region. This macabre dance between the world and the Middle East, in constant conflict, has only brought losses to humanity. As long as the world continues to believe that the problem is regional, the ways out of this horror will only become narrower. Today, they are already more narrow than the Gaza Strip itself.

That being the case, I cannot imagine who would have an interest in this war.